We probably haven’t reached bottom yet
One year ago I wrote what I thought was a pessimistic take on the following year. The leadership had changed. Vaccines were rolling out, the demand for vaccine appointments were sky high. And yet there was a buzzing pessimism that I couldn’t shake. It turns out I was wrong but not in the way I was hoping.
One year ago, January 6th happened. Trump supporters, lead by the former President gathered a mob in front of Congress, stormed into the building and murdered a capitol officer. After their rampage the congress looked like this:
One year since none of the leaders of this mob have been held accountable, only a few dozen insurrectionists have been charged and none have been sentenced to more than 3 years in prison. We still don’t know who the individuals or groups that funded the campaign to make January 6th possible. Worse, most Americans will not mark this anniversary. Right leaning media (the largest segment of Americans only listen to right leaning media) will allow the event to pass without so much as a whisper (or muted celebration for some).
So here we are. Here are my revised predictions for the coming year 2022.
Coronavirus
Most “crush the curve” policies will cease. Americans will largely return to normal-ish social lives: 90%
US death toll from Covid will be under 200k: 50%
Will be over 500k: 20%
This piece by Yascha Mounk at The Atlantic made the argument that the Omicron era will be the end of precautionary measures like shut-downs and test and trace policies in America regardless of how deadly the virus ends up being. Vaccine-mandates will still continue unless and until they are upended in court. Americans that have been vaccinated have largely given themselves permission to go out and have fun again. The same has been true for Americans that refuse to get vaccinated. There’s no way to put the genie back in the bottle.
US death toll is in 2020 was around 385k, and in 2021 it rose to 445k. A majority of the surge happened in early January 2021 before most Americans could be vaccinated. The rest were driven by a summer wave of Delta that hit the South and West and largely affected the unvaccinated. The Omicron surge so far seems much less deadly than the that early 2021 wave while being much more infectious. With the more permissive attitude around masks and social distance, I expect case numbers to continue to rise in 2022 but I think a large enough share of Americans will be protected, either through infection or vaccination that I expect the death rate to significantly drop this year.
However, pandemics are wildly unpredictable. Exponential growth of disease cases is nearly impossible to accurately forecast. While last year’s summer surge was concentrated among the unvaccinated, this summer/fall/winter surge could just as easily evade defenses in the vaccinated (in that world the unvaccinated are still much worse off). Given that Americans will almost certainly be done with precaution measures, there’s a significant risk of a destabilizing hospital system crushing wave for 2022.
Infrastructure
At least one infrastructure project is disrupted by major protests: 50%
Anti-government protests turn violent: 20%
Shovels hit the ground as Biden’s infrastructure deal rolls out. I think the chances of a Obamacare like backlash is underrated. Trust in government has only decreased since the Obama years and there are still government agencies that people will interact with when bridges and power lines go up.
I still think the threat of violence is low but I’m marking it here because I believe it will continue to go up in 2023, 2024 and beyond.
Social Spending and the Biden Agenda
Joe Manchin will come to a deal on some part of the social spending package after Democrats strip out large parts of their wishlist: 30%
I’m not convinced that Joe Manchin has moved from his position from this summer. If anything I think he’s retrenched after seeing the flagging polling numbers for Dems last fall. My bet is Joe Manchin will scupper the whole process, infuriating Democrats and dooming Biden’s agenda.
Midterm Elections
We’re already baked into a future where Democrats lose big. the question is how big. In 2010, the first term of the Obama years, Obama was more popular one year out than Biden is now (but still very unpopular). Republicans gained a devastating +63 seats in the House and +6 seats in the Senate. In 2018 in Trump’s first midterm Democrats gained +41 seats but lost net -2 seats in the Senate. However Dems lost13 House seats back to the Republicans the following election.
Republicans gain 20+ seats in the House: 80%
R’s gain 40+ seats in the House: 20%
R’s gain 5+ seats in the Senate: 40%
Republicans sweep all “purple” state governors races: 20%
Partisanship keeps these expectations in check. Trump tainted the Republican brand for a lot of Americans but not nearly enough to prevent big losses for Democrats this fall. My expectation is that Democrats will be in the wilderness for a long time, writing many retrospectives.
At least one federal election is overturned on bogus fraud charges: <5%
At least one state or local election is overturned on bogus fraud charges:
10%
The sanctity of our elections was tested last winter and the majority of Republicans now believe that the President was fraudulently elected. They have put in the infrastructure to overturn the elections and 2022 will be their first proving ground however there isn’t a charismatic (or narcissistic) enough leader to challenge and overturn a democratic election in either the federal or state level. Yet.
So where is the bottom for the Democrats?
We’re definitely playing defense this year. The ball game will be keeping local and state elections out of Republicans hands. Federal elections can swing back but local politicians become entrenched. The forecast seems pretty bleak for the near future, and I suspect it will take a generational change to change the direction country. That’s still another 8–12 years away. We’ll see if we still have a democracy by then.
In the meantime, if you want to save our democracy, it has to be on a person by person level. Talk to your family, hang out with isolated friends. Don’t judge. Be open but keep to your values. We’ll make it through together.
