Joe Manchin is right about the direction of the Democratic Party
But the real leader the Democratic Party took too long to assert himself
Last week, after much screaming, I have finally come to terms with the political betrayal of one Senator from West Virginia. President Joe has deigned to inform us, through Fox News, that the Democratic agenda is dead to him and therefore dead period. Because of how screwed up our political math is, Joe Manchin is nigh untouchable by the Democrats. No other Dem was likely to win 2022 West Virginia Senate race, and probably not even him. His decision has burned down the 2021 agenda of real President Joe Biden and made it much harder for Democrats in an already hostile climate.
This week was also a week of retrospectives, where I look at where I hoped we would be in the heady days of January 2021. Looking back at my priors I was surprisingly pessimistic, I thought there was only a 35% chance of the Dems taking the Senate. And following a Republican controlled Senate I thought the chances that Biden would face a wall of opposition. I thought that the overall narrative of 2021 would be of a defiant President facing off against an intransigent Senate. I gave a 60% chance of a 2021 government shut down. We’ll see what 2023 will bring.
In other ways though I was clearly over-optimistic. I thought even with a wall of opposition I thought the Democrats would be able to pass some legislation. I gave 70% chance of passing a new Covid relief bill, which did pass. I gave 50% odds on a racial justice bill, 35% on climate change, and 40% on voting reforms. None of these passed. Looking back these numbers I shake my head and wonder if the Democrats did win the Georgia runoffs.
With the losses in Georgia, Republican’s turned their ire towards local politics and education policy. Republicans crafted a tight and hyper targeted message. They largely left the unsavory politicking to the Dems (except at the Supreme Court which can rule by fiat). Because their policy changes in that area were superficial and self-absorbed, Democrats and the media left the racist policies go unchallenged, and will suffer the consequences years, maybe decades down the line.
Meanwhile, the Democrats prove time and again that they are their own worst enemies. Joe Manchin’s criticism, not just that the “Build Back Better” was too expensive, but that it was too expansive. The bill as it was, could never have been marketed to Joe Manchin’s constituents. Why should they have to eat green energy infrastructure in order to get paid family leave? So instead of a tailored policy to win over the swingiest voters, the Dems get nothing. Worse than nothing. Voters don’t give a damn about the details. Even without passing anything, voters will blame that the worst parts of the bill, the hyper spending and accompanying inflation on the Dems in the coming years.
What the Democrats needed in 2021 was message discipline. They needed to create one policy and hammer it with a unified voice, that had a clear goal. Obamacare had a clear goal. Build the wall had a clear goal. Instead they bickered and refused to offend any of their constituents and they ended up letting them all down.
It takes leadership to say “no” to your constituents when your country and your party needs you to. Joe Manchin said “no.”
